Betting on any game of soccer, one Mathematician found out, is as much a matter of luck as it is understanding odds and probability. In an Economist article, David Sumpter, a Maths professor and author of Soccermatics, explains how he used his scientific knowledge to beat the bookmakers, a significant achievement in its own right.
Mr Sumpter came up with several observations as to the nature of sports betting and reached a final decision that each tournament boils down to an individual case study. Where one strategy may have worked, an entirely new approach must be assumed for another competition.
First, We Learn about the Odds
Understanding what bookmakers and the public thinks about an upcoming match, or an entire even is not too difficult to divine. Take, for example, the World Cup. Odds have been swirling around with websites, including Vegas Odds, reporting extensively on the future possible outcomes of the event.
Germany has long been the primed favorite with 9/2 and Brazil and France hovering at around 5/1 and 6/1 respectively. With the World Cup now scheduled to commence as early as 14 June in Russia, it is important to heed the words of the wise.
Mr Sumpter has decided to return and have another go at cramming numbers for the purposes of successfully calling the outcome of soccer competitions. Apart from contributing Soccermatics, Mr Sumpter has also managed to craft the Soccerbot, a clever model that, since it was introduced, is up 1800% ahead of bookmaker’s closing odds.
The uncanny precision of this model may signal that Mr Sumpter has actually found a way to successfully call the outcome of matches without much trouble.
Of course, the Soccerbot is not always right, and it often ventures to support complete outliers. In its current form, Mr Sumpter is considering the idea of supporting two teams that run at 30/1 odds.
Picking the Best Sports Betting Venues
One of the provisos of being successful at sports betting is not just about being able to commit money on the team you think would win. Instead, a savvy gambler focuses on identifying the best US betting sites. This includes knowing how to pick the best odds currently available rather than choosing a team you are familiar with.
Mr Sumpter found out in his first-time toying around with odds and teams, that betting across multiple websites effectively reduced the bookmakers’ advantage significantly.
Why?
A simple matter of the variance of odds across bookmakers. With this in mind, Sumpter found out that by opting to play on multiple bookmakers he significantly reduced their profit margin, down to just 1.5%. In contrast, most bookmakers strive to score at least 5% profit on every bet you make.
In other words, committing $100 would actually be more like playing with $95. Understandably, Mr Sumpter’s insight is quite handy.
The World Cup odds are subject to debate among other analysts of course, and lastly, trusting your own expertise is also a stepping-stone to success. Still, make sure to listen to those with insight into the industry.
